By - adotmatrix
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Ummm aren't we already in the surge?
And we're already at 100k pus cases a day. We're just not testing.
Since the article didn't link it, here's a link to the actual modelling since I had to go looking for it: https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases-maladies/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/update-covid-19-canada-epidemiology-modelling-20220114-en.pdf
Page 6 shows the numbers of age 80+ hospitalized cases eclipses all other age demographics.
Then page 8 points out 96% of that age group is fully vaxxed and page 9 says 71% of that age group also have their boosters.
Compare that to the 30 - 39 year olds who have 4x as many unvaxxed people, and only 20% of that demographic are boostered. And, the 20 - 39 year olds make up over 3x as many cases per 100K as the age 60+ group (page 5). Despite the much higher percentage of unvaxxed people, the much lower rate who are boostered, and the much higher number of cases in the younger group - *the 80+ group have over 6x as many hospitalizations per 100K.*
Yet, this report still concludes (page 7):
>Two doses of vaccine continues to provide good protection against hospitalization, which improves with a booster dose
That simply isn't true for those above a certain age. And it hasn't been true for a while now. In Ottawa in October, 75% of those 80+ who got covid ended up in hospital, despite 100% were fully vaxxed.
Over and over again, vaccination and now vaccination and booster is held out as the way to control hospitalizations. It looks like for those 80+ it is NPIs, that will do that heavy lifting. **Families need to understand this** in order to make sure NPIs are used when around those of a certain age and vaccination is not relied upon because for that age group vaccination doesn't reduce hospitalization and, with omicron, vaccination doesn't protect against infection. (This might be ineffective for other age groups as well, but with lower vaccination rates in younger people, and the refusal to publish timely hospitalization data on vax status AND age, we can't know for sure.)
It's apparent no politician wants to touch this but it is as you say and always has been: the virus is quite clearly **ageist** and **all** strategies in dealing with it need to be taking that into account as opposed to blanket lockdown measures.
Depends on your strategy. Prior to this wave, the strategy was to deal with waves by reducing overall spread in the population. With that approach, you want universal restrictions to reduce contacts (if anything, you should be targeting younger people more since they tend to drive early spread). If you can reverse growth, which was clearly possible with every variant prior to Omicron, then you protect vulnerable people by not having many cases in the first place.
It appears that most places in Canada are currently focused on reducing impact vs. spread now, in which case, yes, targeting vulnerable groups (either to restrict them or give them more ways to protect themselves) is the way to do a strategy like that.
Yeah, like how people under 80 can be carriers and infect those over 80.
I think I liked it better when people just bluntly said they didn't care if those 80+ died, at least we skipped the pleasantries.
I suppose by now young people are used to being punished as the systems are skewed to serve the older demographics (we vote and we tend to have more disposable income plus we are more represented by politicians who are more likely to be our age demographic than in their 20s.)
What amazes me, though, is that we've known clearly now for 18 months that this virus kills old people. And we've know for 6 - 9 months now (thanks to Israel's population wide experiment and excellent data sharing) that vaccination doesn't protect old people from hospitalization and death. Yet nothing has changed.
We do discriminate against old people by requiring a higher level of driver's license testing.
Why we can't discriminate to save their lives by having full NPIs in place at all times for everyone in congregant living settings is beyond me. My friend's mom moved into a high end *retirement* (not LTC) home in September and loved the fact that Covid was over for her. Among residents, no masking, no distancing, no limits on activities (singing, dancing, for example) and daily meals together. Now in this wave, around Christmas they added masking when outside one's room and after Christmas they eliminated the ability to leave the complex for anything but medical appointments and stopped visitors from coming in. But communal meals and some activities continue, despite the place having an outbreak of 8 cases.
Her mom spent time in Toronto over the holidays, figuring she was safe because she was fully vaxxed and boosted (as was most of the family she was visiting.) She had no clue that she was completely exposed to hospitalization if she got omicron because she paid attention to the media and its reporting of government messages that were simply not true for her.
I support her decision to travel, but *only if she knew the risk she was taking and chose to take it.* Reporting covering the main points in government documents such as this one do not highlight the risk, thus rob seniors and their families of the ability to make informed decisions for themselves.
Thanks for the link. Vaxx % in the 5-11 age group is low, what gives.
5 to 11 has only been available for just over a month, and children cannot do informed consent, so subject to their parent's whims
I know of a few vaccinated parents that are hesitant for their kids
The UK models suggested a pretty bad hospitalization scenario and it didn't materialize quite like they expected.
Saying that, they've stayed open for the past 6 weeks. They let this virus spread through the country. It's quite possible they've hit some sort of herd immunity as the virus is running out of hosts. We've effectively slowed down the spread, for some reason, just to re-open and send schools back. I do think we'll unfortunately see surges in the hospitals for awhile yet.
>We've effectively slowed down the spread
The spread has been insane, but imagine if we were still wide open...I really do think we slowed it down a little. Was the pay off worth another massive hit to everyones mental health? probably not.
Yep going with the stupidest plan possible, classic Ford.
Hmmm hospitalizations definitely slowing in Quebec. I don’t know if this “surge” is going to be a trend country wide.
Funny how hospitalizations were magically no longer an issue and the curfew could be dropped right after an opinion poll had Supreme Leader Legault losing 10 points. Total coincidence, I'm sure.
> right after an opinion poll had Supreme Leader Legault losing 10 points. Total coincidence, I'm sure.
Its the other way around. The poll was released afterwards.
Please, how can the cynical justify their pain when you present facts like this.
> definitely slowing
Uhh relatively, but it went up ~100 just in the past 24 hours.
ICU at all-time high too.
January 9th the week over week increase in hospitalizations was 83%, today the week over week increase in hospitalizations is 47%. Today is also the first time in a while there have been under 100 net admissions.
So, the total hospitalizations increased almost 50%. Seems like we're still in surge.
They increased over 80% four days ago. My point is it’s clearly slowing.
So we're still in a surge?
I never said we weren’t. I’m merely saying the “surge” is slowing and I don’t see how there is going to be a new surge
What's your training in epidemiology?
None. But I can understand basic trends
Ok, then I'm gonna go with my gut and side with the government then.
Do you not understand the concept of "still increasing, but at a decreasing rate"?
I'm not a scientist like you
I'm not a scientist either, but it's a fairly basic mathematical concept.
Keep in mind the surge is probably going to emanate from Ontario and Quebec, since we got hit earliest with Omicron. The western provinces will probably peak later.
Yea western provinces seem to be a week or two behind Ontario and Quebec
And we're opening up schools next week why?
Because the cost of not opening schools is higher and compounding compared to the costs of keep them closed.
And rather than waiting two more weeks we send them to school next week and have all our efforts derailed? Which will lead to prolonged shutdowns and lead to the very damage that were trying to prevent kids from experiencing?
Just my two cents and I sure as hell hope I'm wrong.
What would be different after two more weeks?
Arguably we could be past a peak and on a downward trajectory of infections.
Maybe just a little bit more time for the hospitals to deal with the influx and let Omicron decline after hitting its peak?
Your comment has been removed because you are spamming.