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traderjay_toronto

such optimism when there is zero supply


Million2026

It will be a game changer but not any time soon and it’s likely we will still fuck it up. Here’s what I predict: Q1 2022 covid cases start falling as the current wave peaks. We take our usual dose of Hopium and assume we’ve beaten covid for good. We lift most restrictions, probably keep masks. Pfizer produces the pill at a leisurely pace because there just isn’t a huge push to scale demand anymore with covid falling everywhere. Q2 covid starts rising insanely again - but because we assumed the Q1 wave was the last one, Pfizer has no supply. We start aggressively scaling manufacturing of the pills but there’s so much worldwide demand, we can’t get supply in any significant quantities until Q4 Q4 comes and we finally have some supply - however the virus has mutated so much that as opposed to 90% more effective it’s now 50% effective. In any case, the winter covid wave starts abating and we declare that we’ve beaten covid. Pfizer doesn’t bother upgrading the pill with urgency because we keep repeating how we’ve beaten covid. Q1 2023: Cases start increasing like crazy again and we re-start the above process.