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EmmyNoetherRing

I’ve been wondering how much 1918 impacted the subsequent decades/generations. The parents in 1918 would’ve been policy makers in the 1930’s.


Grimloki

WWI ended in 1918. As years go it would affect policy makers quite a bit. Wartime suppression of coverage Spanish Flu certainly affected public perception about the pandemics severity. History and politics are outside the scope of this sub's discussions, so I can't link any historical sources as they aren't scientific. I believe this paper would be better if it addressed or accounted for the politics at the time. They had a great deal of bearing on both the all cause mortality statistics cited and public health policies (or lack thereof).


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Grimloki

It's possible they weren't that aware of it. Perhaps the most shocking thing I found about the Spanish Flu was that there's evidence to show that the later mortalities from the flu were likely to be exacerbated by the treatment and not the disease itself. Aspirin poisoning. https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/49/9/1405/301441


LilFoxieUndercover

I respect your public sacrifice (if you took the right decisions that is). People generally don't think about it but being in charge during this time is just the worst, especially because those who understand your actions don't really back you up on socials, where you'll only ever see the no-people disregarding you as they could. I feel like this will become more and more of a problem in the near future, covid or not.


YourWebcam

Your post or comment has been removed because it is off-topic and/or anecdotal [Rule 7], which diverts focus from the science of the disease. Please keep all posts and comments related to the science of COVID-19. Please avoid political discussions. Non-scientific discussion might be better suited for /r/coronavirus. If you think we made a mistake, please contact us. Thank you for keeping /r/COVID19 impartial and on topic.


olafc

I think some people would dispute that history isn't a science!


ManInBlackHat

It’s technically part of the humanities, but I don’t see why peer reviewed history shouldn't be linkable here.


emmazunz84

When you read literature from the 20s and 30s it's barely mentioned, at least in my experience. I saw it come up once in Steinbeck.


Max_Thunder

Could it be that the Spanish flu was not *that* remarkable for people used to losing people to other severe diseases? I would be curious to see excess mortality caused by it at the time.


afk05

Exactly. Average life span was much lower, many immigrants still flooding here to escape worse conditions in their homelands, and still occurring during the period of industrialization. A century prior us a vast difference, particularly in developed nations with “first-world problems”. Perspective is EVERYTHING.


EmmyNoetherRing

Depends on who’s writing. Dorothy Sayers makes several references.


nipfarthing

Oh! And, of course, Mr Gower's son, in *It's a Wonderful Life.*


nipfarthing

And Leslie Charteris.


jkh107

Pale Horse, Pale Rider, by Katherine Anne Porter, is considered one of the few literary works actually about the pandemic.


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adotmatrix

Posts and, where appropriate, comments must link to a primary scientific source: peer-reviewed original research, pre-prints from established servers, and research or reports by governments and other reputable organisations. Please do not link to YouTube or Twitter. News stories and secondary or tertiary reports about original research are a better fit for r/Coronavirus.


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Cho-Zen-One

"in late 1957 and early 1958, an estimated '80 million Americans were bedridden with respiratory disease.' " WTH? I never even heard of the 1957 “Asian flu”.


kbotc

H2N2, about a decade later it acquired H3 and became H3N2 and there was another pandemic. Weirdly, H1N1 was largely eliminated by the '58 outbreak and did not re-appear until the 1970s and we don't exactly know where the re-appearance came from, though it's a strain that was in the USSR in the 1950s that suddenly re-appeared, so there's suspicion that it was a live virus vaccine experiment gone awry. [https://www.nature.com/articles/274309b0](https://www.nature.com/articles/274309b0)


jaguarj1m

Paywall :(


alanpugh

Appears to be available here: https://www.academia.edu/57538264/Influenza_A_viruses_shaking_out_our_shibboleths


death_blade01

I remember hearing about it when H1N1 was big. They said older Americans wouldn’t be as affected because they’d likely still have antibodies from that. I have no source, just a memory of reading about it.


JhnWyclf

> they’d likely still have antibodies from that. Would *antibodies* last that long? Wouldn’t it be B and T cells that would remember it abs act accordingly?


wclikeman

I think for the general public antibodies = immunity


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death_blade01

You’re probably right. I’m not an expert.


cafedude

I recall something called the Hong Kong flu in 1968. I was 5 years old. Everyone in the house (parents, uncle, sister, cousin) but me was sick with it for a good couple weeks. My mom sent me to the store to buy food since I was the only one not sick - gave me a note and $5 to hand to the store clerk. Lots of people were sick then. H3N2. Looks like about 100,000 people died: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html


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adotmatrix

Your post or comment has been removed because it is off-topic and/or anecdotal [Rule 7], which diverts focus from the science of the disease. Please keep all posts and comments related to the science of COVID-19. Please avoid political discussions. Non-scientific discussion might be better suited for /r/coronavirus or /r/China_Flu. If you think we made a mistake, please contact us. Thank you for keeping /r/COVID19 impartial and on topic.


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torrentialdrought

I expect governments around the world will begin declaring the pandemic over at some point, before it actually is. So it will sort of be televised.


JhnWyclf

You mean like the US and UK did last summer?


AgnesIsAPhysicist

Right, I think the pandemic will be over when China decides to stop locking down entire cities— it’s going to be ignored in the US and Europe much sooner, as it already has been to some extent.


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YourWebcam

Your post or comment has been removed because it is off-topic and/or anecdotal [Rule 7], which diverts focus from the science of the disease. Please keep all posts and comments related to the science of COVID-19. Please avoid political discussions. Non-scientific discussion might be better suited for /r/coronavirus. If you think we made a mistake, please contact us. Thank you for keeping /r/COVID19 impartial and on topic.


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AbraCaxHellsnacks

>As an extraordinary period in which social life was upturned, the covid-19 pandemic will be over when we turn off our screens and decide that other issues are once again worthy of our attention. Unlike its beginning, the end of the pandemic will not be televised. I am not sure how to feel about this paragraph. It sounds logical but irresponsible at the same time.


ApolloWest36

It’s not irresponsible. In my opinion, it’s entirely necessary. Most importantly, to acknowledge that other issues still exist and are deserving of our attention. That is not to say we should stop caring or do nothing, but if we have protocol and procedures in place around COVID, what good does it do for the general public to constantly stay glued to dashboards and graphs? Have you ever done that with death figures, and do you think doing so would have a positive effect on the outcome? I guess what I’m saying is, do what you can, but you must keep living.


vpu7

We don’t have protocol or procedures, though. We have best practices but no political will to enforce them. That doesn’t take away from other issues in the world of course. But it is terrifying that “getting on with our lives” increasingly means accepting gross negligence from governments, uncontrolled waves which overwhelm hospitals and essential services, no support for long Covid, no reliable source of health information from the government, no protection or compensation for people most at risk. We can’t even have a rational distribution system for Covid tests. Just waves of trauma that there is no plan to deal with.


AlaskaPeteMeat

Yep. Media attention and focus does not define the hard math of the communicability and acquisition of disease. This article is wishful garbage and magical thinking.


Epistaxis

Plenty of people already did that a year or two ago and kept begging everyone else to do the same - in their defense, there really are plenty of other issues worthy of their attention - but somehow that didn't stop the virus. This article has almost comically bad timing, possibly written before the Omicron surge (with just that little bit tacked on at the beginning) and certainly published just before it started causing hospitalization surges and de facto lockdowns on the same scale as the first and biggest surge of 2020 in some places. But it's at least becoming realistic to imagine this might be the last big surge, and perhaps a short one at that, so very soon it could be time to start thinking about these issues. Or the current surge could lead to the evolution of a new variant with even greater immune escape and one wave continues into another worse one. Or a combination of both: this surge could die down as fast as it sprang up and give us a blessed lull like last summer, only to see another fresh variant pop up months later in from of our numerous unvaccinated human reservoirs, and then we actually have to switch back from calm to crisis in a hurry. That could be the most difficult scenario socially even though it might be the easiest to prepare for on paper. It would be nice if we came out of this catastrophe more experienced and soberly prepared to confront the next one with less panic and loss of life and disruption of society, but there are so many indications of the opposite, that we're tired of crisis (or just bored) and if another comes soon we'd rather change the channel and let the disaster do its worst.


thaw4188

Unfortunately pandemics don't end when there is a simple cure/preventative, they end when when more than a certain percentage of the population decides that risky behavior is worth the shallow rewards they want -now- When populations redefine/ignore risk and create their own rules regardless of consequences to themselves, or others, the pandemic may be blazing but it's still effectively "over" until it's each individual's own turn to suffer. And that model can now be projected onto every other crisis like climate change.


dsm1995gst

I thought there was some type of numbers-based definition of “epidemic” vs “pandemic.”


mlgoody

Not even a numbers based difference between endemic and epidemic - just relative to expectation.


Max_Thunder

I thought epidemic was local, pandemic worldwide. The pandemic could be over but there could still be local epidemics, although the term would be more likely for viruses that aren't very contagious, like the Ebola virus. There's no number definition though. Can't really tell for instance where a bad flu year ends and a flu pandemic begins, unless one way to call it gains traction and becomes the popular consensus.


deodorel

What is the scientific explanation in which un vaccinated people put evolutionary pressure on the virus to aquire vaccine immune escape characteristics? Because for me it would be more logical that vaccine escape would be driven by vaccinated people.


Henri-Kerville

There was a paper posted here a while ago. So if a virus gets in your body and the vaccination already provides antibodies there is a quick response the virus can only do a few cycles and is hindered by antibodies. In unvaccinated people (and immunocompromised) there is a lot less pressure on the virus, so more cycles and a lot more chances for mutations.


deodorel

Yes the search space is bigger in unvaccinated, that is clear. But the pressure would apply equally to nucleocapsid based antibodies right. Why would viruses be selected to escape anti spike protein antibodies seeing how you won't be building them especially.


uh-okay-I-guess

The spike protein was selected for the vaccines precisely because no one has very high hopes for anti-nucleocapsid (or anti-M/anti-E) antibodies. COVID-19 is an enveloped virus and the nucleocapsid is on the inside of the membrane. Antibodies against it are not likely to neutralize the virus, and evading those antibodies probably doesn't increase fitness much, if at all.


real_kdot

I would imagine that the virus would use the bigger search space within unvaccinated people to acquire all kinds of mutations, and then those mutations which help to evade anti-spike antibodies will be able to jump to vaccinated individuals. Even though the pressure isn't in the unvaccinated person, the interaction between vaccinated and unvaccinated people selects for evasion of anti-spike antibodies.


deodorel

How would that interaction select for anti spike antibodies evasion? Like when an infected unvaccinated meets and infects a vaccinated individual? In this case the pressure would be way bigger while interacting with the immune system of the vaccinated individual anyway, right? I mean if 2 vaccinated people meet the only variants that would be able to jump are those not quickly killed off by the host. So it's exactly the same problem. Btw is there any study with convalescent plasma about how effective are anti nucleocapside antibodies and în what proportion would a person build these? Like is it 50 - 50? Does the body asses how effective one antibody for a specific epitope is or are randomly produced.


craigdalton

People forgot the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic very quickly. They forget the daily headlines, daily update media conferences by CDC for months, the panicked school closures, a NY school nurse described their sick bay like an over loaded ED department. Although this is mich worse than the 2009 pandemic, I predict people will forget this pandemic very quickly too.


_M1R4CL3

Most people's lives around the world have revolved around this pandemic for almost two years now, and you can consider yourself lucky if it hasn't had some sort of consequential impact on your life. Strongly disagree people will just forget it like H1N1. They will move on, but they won't need to be reminded and I doubt they'll whitewash it. Hell we're likely to see permanent social changes as a direct results of it.


Max_Thunder

I barely remember anything about H1N1 because nothing of my daily life changed. I don't think any schools closed in my part of Canada. In comparison, the COVID pandemic policies have had major impacts on almost every aspect of my life. People will never forget it, there will be a pre-COVID time and a post-COVID time.


lionsden08

Two years going on three, major lockdowns, world economies greatly affected, huge supply chain issues, permanent Work From Home culture, great political divide over vax and role of government… Yeah I don’t think people will forget about this one that easily.


okawei

I very much doubt people are going to forget covid quickly. People are already framing things as pre covid or post covid, it’s in the zeitgeist now


oplm

I still remember going to see Transformers 2 in the middle of the whole ordeal, of course a packed auditorium, never once heard a mask suggested to anybody, and when they threw in a (very clearly) last minute joke about H1N1, the whole theater laughed. The discourse around the whole thing was about the same as it was for Covid-19 in February 2020, but for an entire summer. Now, knowing how close we came to dealing with a full blown "shutdown style" pandemic back then, I'm sure I would have been incredibly nervous had I been a little older. Took no precautions then, all the precautions now. I certainly hope we can all move on just as easily someday.


DertyChewbacca

I honestly didn’t even know we had a pandemic in 2009 until 2020 when people were talking about it compared to Covid.


NotAnotherEmpire

All the main precautions for 2009 were front loaded before it was determined to be relatively mild. They were quickly dropped because (a) it wasn't materially more severe than seasonal flu, and (b) containment had failed before it was even identified. And the actual pandemic happened so fast it was gone by "normal" flu season. So most people just know it as a crappy surprise flu season in the middle of a much worse severe recession. Many people did not develop symptomatic disease either. COVID has been around for two years, has impacted absolutely everyone, and has directly (severe illness, injury / long COVID, death of family or friend) hurt tens of millions of people. Not comparable.


jphamlore

The difference is testing. I on the other hand predict some areas will refuse to stop testing in an effort to maintain zero infection until they are stopped by law, such as United States universities and some school systems.


AgnesIsAPhysicist

It’s true, and we’ve mostly forgotten the AIDS pandemic even though it’s ongoing.


janeprentiss

the lgbt community certainly hasn't


x888x

Interesting to note that the death rate was ticking up since 2010 as the boomer generation began hitting old age. Also note that of the ~800k deaths attributed to COVID, only about 50k are < 50 years old. And less than 20k under 40.


Remarkable-Choices

>Interesting to note that the death rate was ticking up since 2010 as the boomer generation began hitting old age. i was pretty sure almost all of the increase in all cause mortality (pre covid) was driven by younger people dying more often, but i am unable to readily find the source of this. i just remember reading about it.


drleeisinsurgery

An excellent piece of writing!


rfabbri

Unreliable and biased article to say the least. Why mention Brazil and India but not the US? Why diminish the value of clear information metrics we have access to?


Bestperson117

I'm pretty sure the WHO will declare it over when it's over.


Max_Thunder

I feel like they can only declare it over after it's over already. It was almost "over" where I live during late spring and most of summer in 2020 and again in 2021, but each time was followed by a major wave. It feels like we'll only know it's over during summer 2022 if we pass the test of going through fall and the next winter without a large rise in COVID-caused hospitalizations.


Bestperson117

I also believe that we have to go 20 days without any reported cases in order for it to be declared contained worldwide.


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